The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.15
Bock Blocks
2x $0.20
Dark Polymer
1x $0.21
Aeolian Light
2x $0.27
Creep
2x $0.27
Grip Tape
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.61
Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.24
Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.85
Max Win
$5.61 (+115.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.24 (+24.0%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+57.7%
Cost
$2.61
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.61
Ask Price EV $3.24 (+24.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.88 (+10.3%)
Ask Profit $0.63 (+24.0%)
Bid Profit $0.27 (+10.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.36 (+13.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.63
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $5.61 (+115.1%)
Worst Case $1.77 (-32.0%)
Volatility +57.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$2.04
Avg Loss -$0.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.77 (-32.0%)
Std Dev $1.51
Avg Norm Float 0.3796
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 155h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 14S //TOTAL COST $2.61 //ASK PRICE EV $3.24 //BID PRICE EV $2.88 //ASK PROFIT $0.63 (+24.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.27 (+10.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $5.61 //VOLATILITY +57.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.61
+$3.00
+115.1%
$5.00
+$2.39
+91.6%
$0.61
10.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.11
+$1.50
+57.5%
$3.61
+$1.00
+38.3%
$0.50
12.2%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.79
+$0.18
+6.8%
$2.32
-$0.29
-11.1%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.24
-$0.37
-14.0%
$2.13
-$0.48
-18.4%
$0.11
5.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.19
-$0.42
-16.2%
$1.74
-$0.87
-33.3%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.85
-$0.76
-29.0%
$1.65
-$0.96
-36.8%
$0.20
11.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.77
-$0.84
-32.0%
$1.65
-$0.96
-36.8%
$0.12
7.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.28468499999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.26570599999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:25.411828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.37958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.37958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.37958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.37958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7735,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:47.950712Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.37958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.8535000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.85,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:49.433796Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bd5c8fa97359149d37bc7095",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:47.310057Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "505109542380280088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:47.310057Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "498354142901118631",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:02.095145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "506235389469164208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:16:07.467372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983642533878695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:02.095145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.320546Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "499480042829042929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:26.589196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "510739041955006366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:18.510950Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "505109542381000772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:08.310082Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "500605942756508075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:01.421513Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.61 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.46 | $5.61 +120.1% | $2.95 +15.8% | 35.0% | +59.5% | $2.55 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 25.0% $13.99 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.30 Amberline 10.0% $3.17 | $27.06 +144.9% | $12.42 +12.4% | 50.0% | +80.7% | $11.05 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 25.0% $27.06 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 25.0% $13.99 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.06 Amberline 10.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +66.8% | $16.64 +2.6% | 35.0% | +38.1% | $16.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +124.0% | $6.73 +25.1% | 35.0% | +72.0% | $5.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.01 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +144.4% | $6.13 +24.4% | 60.0% | +78.1% | $4.93 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Amberline 4.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +102.8% | $7.33 +23.4% | 40.0% | +64.3% | $5.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.61 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.24 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +123.6% | $3.10 +23.4% | 44.0% | +53.9% | $2.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $5.01 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +84.2% | $7.93 +21.3% | 45.0% | +56.6% | $6.54 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +122.8% | $2.96 +17.4% | 43.0% | +49.9% | $2.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $5.61 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.33 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.77 | $5.61 +125.4% | $2.81 +12.8% | 42.0% | +46.1% | $2.49 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.73 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 Amberline 18.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +119.6% | $13.52 +9.7% | 46.0% | +35.1% | $12.32 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  23.3% $35.39 The End  30.0% $27.17 Deathgaze  23.3% $9.36 Kintsugi  23.3% $9.12 | $35.39 +106.3% | $20.72 +20.8% | 53.3% | +65.0% | $17.15 | — |