The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Spirit Board
1x $1.30
Fusion
3x $0.40
Fragment
1x $0.43
Bock Blocks
3x $0.63
RMX
2x $1.22
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
18.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
18.0% $10.78
Amberline
18.0% $5.56
Galigator
18.0% $5.30
Urban Sovereign
18.0% $4.90
Night Terror
2.0% $4.12
Max Win
$16.94 (+102.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.06 (-3.7%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+57.6%
Cost
$8.37
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.37
Ask Price EV $8.06 (-3.7%)
Bid Price EV $6.96 (-16.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.31 (-3.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.41 (-16.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+13.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.41
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+102.3%)
Worst Case $1.14 (-86.3%)
Volatility +57.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 64.0%
Avg Win +$5.49
Avg Loss -$3.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.43 (-82.9%)
Std Dev $4.82
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 153h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.22 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 39S //TOTAL COST $8.37 //ASK PRICE EV $8.06 //BID PRICE EV $6.96 //ASK PROFIT $-0.31 (-3.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.41 (-16.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +57.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$16.94
+$8.57
+102.3%
$14.31
+$5.94
+71.0%
$2.63
15.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$10.78
+$2.41
+28.8%
$9.15
+$0.78
+9.3%
$1.63
15.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$5.56
-$2.81
-33.5%
$4.92
-$3.45
-41.2%
$0.64
11.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$5.30
-$3.07
-36.7%
$4.91
-$3.46
-41.3%
$0.39
7.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$4.90
-$3.47
-41.5%
$4.26
-$4.11
-49.1%
$0.64
13.0%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$4.12
-$4.25
-50.7%
$3.46
-$4.91
-58.7%
$0.66
16.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$3.94
-$4.43
-52.9%
$3.26
-$5.11
-61.1%
$0.68
17.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$1.43
-$6.94
-82.9%
$1.22
-$7.15
-85.4%
$0.21
14.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.31
-$7.06
-84.3%
$1.19
-$7.18
-85.8%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.14
-$7.23
-86.3%
$1.00
-$7.37
-88.1%
$0.14
12.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.2965,
"optimistic_value": 5.09,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:47.589758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 5.562,
"optimistic_value": 5.24,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:56.544986Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.8955,
"optimistic_value": 4.85,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:34:46.609051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.434,
"optimistic_value": 1.42,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:16:15.378035Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.104895,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.10039950000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.314,
"optimistic_value": 1.3,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:10.057171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.11388600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.074925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.1445,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:55.913655Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b645d6790bedd32b7a288ad4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "500605942756135727",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:41.626767Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "527627540538356672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:33.459438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040963095890",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:50.132714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:33.459438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:46.771579Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:20.082689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857742727234656",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:45.140407Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:45.140407Z"
},
{
"price": 1.22,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "512990841908728043",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:35.328460Z"
},
{
"price": 1.23,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "493850543432812360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:35.328460Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +180.8% | $24.02 +31.6% | 54.0% | +75.0% | $18.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +207.2% | $22.01 +31.9% | 48.0% | +80.1% | $16.69 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +228.3% | $20.00 +28.0% | 42.0% | +83.8% | $15.62 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.11 Galigator 10.0% $5.63 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.88 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +281.4% | $5.63 +26.8% | 50.0% | +89.4% | $4.44 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +259.8% | $17.99 +26.2% | 48.0% | +89.8% | $14.25 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.11 Galigator 8.0% $5.63 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.88 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +326.6% | $4.98 +25.5% | 52.0% | +95.4% | $3.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 6.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 6.0% $10.78 Amberline 6.0% $6.11 Galigator 6.0% $5.63 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $4.88 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +377.1% | $4.33 +22.1% | 58.0% | +98.9% | $3.55 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Galigator 4.0% $5.59 Amberline 4.0% $5.56 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.90 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +427.6% | $3.67 +14.3% | 52.0% | +95.8% | $3.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.59 Abyssal Apparition  3.3% $31.16 Rapid Eye Movement  3.3% $30.16 Melondrama  3.3% $26.06 | $290.04 +197.9% | $125.64 +29.0% | 30.0% | +110.9% | $97.36 | — |