The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.26
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Dark Chamber
2x $0.51
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.01
Picnic
1x $0.18
XoooM
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
10.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
10.0% $3.48
Creep
15.0% $2.38
Earth Mandala
10.0% $2.30
Warm Blooded
10.0% $2.28
The Daily Deagle
15.0% $2.20
Max Win
$6.16 (+27.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.72 (-43.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+25.3%
Cost
$4.82
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.82
Ask Price EV $2.72 (-43.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.68 (-44.5%)
Ask Profit $-2.10 (-43.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.14 (-44.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.10
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.14
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+27.8%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-60.6%)
Volatility +25.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$1.34
Avg Loss -$2.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-60.6%)
Std Dev $1.22
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 8h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.01 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 28S //TOTAL COST $4.82 //ASK PRICE EV $2.72 //BID PRICE EV $2.68 //ASK PROFIT $-2.10 (-43.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.14 (-44.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +25.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
10.0%
$6.16
+$1.34
+27.8%
$6.12
+$1.30
+27.0%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.48
-$1.34
-27.7%
$3.42
-$1.40
-29.0%
$0.06
1.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.38
-$2.44
-50.5%
$2.34
-$2.48
-51.5%
$0.04
1.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.30
-$2.52
-52.2%
$2.25
-$2.57
-53.3%
$0.05
2.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.28
-$2.54
-52.7%
$2.25
-$2.57
-53.3%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.20
-$2.62
-54.3%
$2.19
-$2.63
-54.6%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.13
-$2.69
-55.7%
$2.10
-$2.72
-56.4%
$0.03
1.6%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.90
-$2.92
-60.6%
$1.86
-$2.96
-61.4%
$0.04
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.05583200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3835,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:50.384293Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0404782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2035,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:11.342837Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0523425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.1335,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:52.815628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.04536350000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.9004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:14.514206Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04536350000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:25.941367Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:29.198715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0460614,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:29.429487Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a9d0082630906e5c00b31c67",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "523123940968962790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:47.996353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "497228243055016469",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:31.456273Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "517494441497469094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:47.996353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "526501640650989833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:04.631787Z"
},
{
"price": 1.01,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "519746188259274308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:54.519374Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "511864941882072957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:04.631787Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "525375740885784211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.527557Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620341242882920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:41.857832Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "519746241188358872",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:53.871574Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501640650770053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:53.871574Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 10.0% $6.16 Sky Mandala 10.0% $3.48 Earth Mandala 10.0% $2.30 Warm Blooded 10.0% $2.28 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $2.20 Aeolian Light 15.0% $1.90 | $6.16 +193.2% | $2.28 +8.6% | 55.0% | +61.5% | $2.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.64 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.08 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.04 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.93 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.72 | $2.93 +245.2% | $1.14 +34.7% | 62.5% | +79.8% | $0.85 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.64 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.09 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.05 Creep 17.5% $0.90 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.87 | $2.93 +233.4% | $1.07 +21.1% | 47.5% | +62.0% | $0.88 | — |