The Lake Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Mudder
3x $0.09
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
Tiger Tear
1x $0.15
Acid Dart
2x $0.16
Leafhopper
2x $0.16
Garter-9
1x $0.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
13.3% $7.22
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $3.67
Copperflage
12.0% $1.66
Teardown
13.3% $1.65
Gold Leaf
12.0% $1.55
Max Win
$7.22 (+250.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.75 (+33.5%)
Win %
37.3%
Volatility
+105.2%
Cost
$2.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.06
Ask Price EV $2.75 (+33.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.51 (+22.0%)
Ask Profit $0.69 (+33.5%)
Bid Profit $0.45 (+22.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+11.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.69
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.45
Risk
Win Probability 37.3%
Loss Probability 62.7%
Best Case $7.22 (+250.4%)
Worst Case $0.43 (-79.1%)
Volatility +105.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 25.3%
Avg Win +$3.18
Avg Loss -$0.79
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.43 (-79.1%)
Std Dev $2.17
Avg Norm Float 0.1166
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 143h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 15S //TOTAL COST $2.06 //ASK PRICE EV $2.75 //BID PRICE EV $2.51 //ASK PROFIT $0.69 (+33.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.45 (+22.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 37.3% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +105.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$7.22
+$5.16
+250.4%
$6.84
+$4.78
+232.0%
$0.38
5.2%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$4.61
+$2.55
+123.8%
$3.81
+$1.75
+85.0%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$3.67
+$1.61
+78.2%
$3.64
+$1.58
+76.7%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.66
-$0.40
-19.2%
$1.27
-$0.79
-38.3%
$0.39
23.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$1.65
-$0.41
-19.9%
$1.64
-$0.42
-20.4%
$0.01
0.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.55
-$0.51
-24.8%
$1.28
-$0.78
-37.9%
$0.27
17.4%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.03
-$1.03
-50.0%
$1.00
-$1.06
-51.5%
$0.03
2.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.43
-$1.63
-79.1%
$0.41
-$1.65
-80.1%
$0.02
4.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:30.218632Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.009324,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:46:13.474298Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0874125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.079254,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.483724Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.549,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.198151Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0641025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:11.775371Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a5ee9df05914716cb0d8b9b8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "511864836540177417",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:47.802145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961907475",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:41:22.295918Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "507361289453696233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:16.033320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "501731789729761181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:16.033320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:00:10.786852Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789044843799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:33.603957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:35.564242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:33.603957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:35.564242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123888071660394",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:36.154319Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Anodized Navy 13.3% $1.03 Night Ops 13.3% $0.61 Teardown 13.3% $0.47 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.43 | $4.61 +390.4% | $1.20 +28.0% | 37.3% | +135.9% | $0.94 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $3.67 Copperflage 8.0% $1.66 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 Gold Leaf 8.0% $1.56 | $7.22 +226.6% | $2.93 +32.8% | 36.0% | +96.5% | $2.21 | — |