The Ascent Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
Picnic
4x $0.16
Banana Leaf
2x $0.17
Coral Paisley
1x $0.26
XoooM
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
20.0% $6.21
Yeti Camo
4.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
20.0% $3.50
Mint Fan
4.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
4.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
4.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+125.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.46 (+25.3%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+54.3%
Cost
$2.76
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.76
Ask Price EV $3.46 (+25.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.42 (+24.0%)
Ask Profit $0.70 (+25.3%)
Bid Profit $0.66 (+24.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.03 (+1.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+125.0%)
Worst Case $2.23 (-19.1%)
Volatility +54.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.94
Avg Loss -$0.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.24 (-18.8%)
Std Dev $1.50
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 8h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 12S //TOTAL COST $2.76 //ASK PRICE EV $3.46 //BID PRICE EV $3.42 //ASK PROFIT $0.70 (+25.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.66 (+24.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +54.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$6.21
+$3.45
+125.0%
$6.18
+$3.42
+123.9%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$4.46
+$1.70
+61.6%
$4.43
+$1.67
+60.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$3.50
+$0.74
+26.7%
$3.45
+$0.69
+25.0%
$0.05
1.3%
—
WIN
4.0%
$3.37
+$0.61
+22.2%
$3.34
+$0.58
+21.0%
$0.03
1.0%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.66
-$0.10
-3.7%
$2.64
-$0.12
-4.3%
$0.02
0.6%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.64
-$0.12
-4.3%
$2.62
-$0.14
-5.1%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$2.27
-$0.49
-17.8%
$2.25
-$0.51
-18.5%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.24
-$0.52
-18.8%
$2.23
-$0.53
-19.2%
$0.01
0.4%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.23
-$0.53
-19.1%
$2.00
-$0.76
-27.5%
$0.23
10.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.064961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.497,
"optimistic_value": 3.49,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:51.211236Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.0659604,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:47.494612Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.059963999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:00.191826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.064961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:05.635041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.059963999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.476109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.059963999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:00.585370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_90448157dff86b10120e0774",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "499479989895797449",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:43.506239Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:43.506239Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "503983589618556751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:20.221450Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:45.306255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:20.221450Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "527627435180956868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:27.824384Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "517494388633427818",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:00.856785Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746188257913796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:50.376148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "529879287551165328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514115891844168738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
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