The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Night Riot
2x $2.77
Blush Pour
4x $0.98
Shredded
2x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
26.7% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $16.98
SWAG-7
4.0% $10.64
Arctic Wolf
4.0% $9.64
Wild Six
4.0% $6.02
Max Win
$33.42 (+37.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.43 (-19.9%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+38.5%
Cost
$24.24
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $24.24
Ask Price EV $19.43 (-19.9%)
Bid Price EV $18.62 (-23.2%)
Ask Profit $-4.81 (-19.9%)
Bid Profit $-5.62 (-23.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.81 (+3.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.81
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.62
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $33.42 (+37.9%)
Worst Case $3.80 (-84.3%)
Volatility +38.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$9.18
Avg Loss -$9.90
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.41 (-77.7%)
Std Dev $9.32
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 145h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.77 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$3.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 26S //TOTAL COST $24.24 //ASK PRICE EV $19.43 //BID PRICE EV $18.62 //ASK PROFIT $-4.81 (-19.9%) //BID PROFIT $-5.62 (-23.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +38.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
26.7%
$33.42
+$9.18
+37.9%
$31.48
+$7.24
+29.9%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$17.13
-$7.11
-29.3%
$16.69
-$7.55
-31.1%
$0.44
2.6%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$16.98
-$7.26
-30.0%
$16.48
-$7.76
-32.0%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$10.64
-$13.60
-56.1%
$10.08
-$14.16
-58.4%
$0.56
5.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$9.64
-$14.60
-60.2%
$9.51
-$14.73
-60.8%
$0.13
1.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$6.02
-$18.22
-75.1%
$5.95
-$18.29
-75.5%
$0.07
1.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$5.41
-$18.83
-77.7%
$5.26
-$18.98
-78.3%
$0.15
2.8%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.80
-$20.44
-84.3%
$3.65
-$20.59
-84.9%
$0.15
4.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0468732,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.133499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:00.692920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.045474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.414000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 5.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:46:00.843493Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0643632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 10.6385,
"optimistic_value": 10.6,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 10.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:34.425419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.038478,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.8005,
"optimistic_value": 3.79,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:02.861015Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 6.0245,
"optimistic_value": 6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 5.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:32:38.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 9.641,
"optimistic_value": 9.62,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 9.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:13.225475Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8c646ea0373465e7009d6734",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.77,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "520872035663982948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:18.293840Z"
},
{
"price": 3.08,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "502857524062905616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:18.293840Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737593455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:06.932821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "523123888072770526",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:40.321629Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:41.338721Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +165.7% | $7.94 +32.4% | 53.3% | +80.7% | $6.00 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 26.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 26.7% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $16.98 Moonrise 4.0% $5.41 Lionfish 4.0% $3.80 SWAG-7 4.0% $1.77 | $33.42 +92.7% | $18.56 +7.0% | 26.7% | +53.8% | $17.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +295.6% | $5.34 +32.4% | 50.0% | +120.9% | $4.03 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +200.2% | $7.01 +32.1% | 70.0% | +93.3% | $5.31 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Moonrise 2.0% $2.25 Lionfish 2.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 2.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +135.8% | $8.82 +30.5% | 60.0% | +69.1% | $6.76 | — |