The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Gnarled
3x $0.32
Freight
3x $1.42
Bock Blocks
3x $0.74
Fusion
1x $2.99
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
8.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
8.0% $31.66
Amberline
8.0% $18.87
Galigator
8.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
8.0% $13.57
Brother
12.0% $11.85
Max Win
$51.27 (+345.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.10 (+31.1%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+110.9%
Cost
$11.51
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $11.51
Ask Price EV $15.10 (+31.1%)
Bid Price EV $12.60 (+9.5%)
Ask Profit $3.59 (+31.1%)
Bid Profit $1.09 (+9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.50 (+21.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.09
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+345.5%)
Worst Case $4.78 (-58.5%)
Volatility +110.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$11.21
Avg Loss -$4.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.78 (-58.5%)
Std Dev $12.76
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 69h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 23S //TOTAL COST $11.51 //ASK PRICE EV $15.10 //BID PRICE EV $12.60 //ASK PROFIT $3.59 (+31.1%) //BID PROFIT $1.09 (+9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +110.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$51.27
+$39.76
+345.5%
$43.51
+$32.00
+278.0%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$31.66
+$20.15
+175.0%
$29.45
+$17.94
+155.9%
$2.21
7.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$18.87
+$7.36
+63.9%
$12.97
+$1.46
+12.7%
$5.90
31.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$14.51
+$3.00
+26.1%
$13.05
+$1.54
+13.4%
$1.46
10.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$13.57
+$2.06
+17.9%
$11.82
+$0.31
+2.7%
$1.75
12.9%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.85
+$0.34
+3.0%
$6.76
-$4.75
-41.3%
$5.09
43.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.28
-$3.23
-28.1%
$7.96
-$3.55
-30.8%
$0.32
3.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$7.80
-$3.71
-32.2%
$6.87
-$4.64
-40.3%
$0.93
12.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$6.49
-$5.02
-43.6%
$5.54
-$5.97
-51.9%
$0.95
14.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.78
-$6.73
-58.5%
$3.99
-$7.52
-65.3%
$0.79
16.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.055904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 6.492,
"optimistic_value": 6.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 5.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:08:10.587097Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 7.8045,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:24:36.328906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.2765,
"optimistic_value": 8,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:31.997431Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.055904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 4.779,
"optimistic_value": 4.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 3.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:44:51.857491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.8515,
"optimistic_value": 11.33,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 6.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T19:03:13.729438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.574,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.912966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_856efa91f3a6c7d050747dab",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "520872141038157852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:12.477243Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "496102290329960051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:12.477243Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "524249787962184243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:12.477243Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "524249840859648027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:50.955090Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "520871922572998776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:50.955090Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "523123091056815646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:50.955090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "493850543433131140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.913374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487242223022158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.913374Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.913374Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "490472790738237423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:28.772828Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:6+collection-set-community-37:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.01 Galigator 8.0% $5.43 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.76 Monster Call 12.0% $2.47 | $16.94 +330.9% | $4.88 +24.1% | 40.0% | +99.3% | $3.93 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 8.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 8.0% $6.12 Galigator 8.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $2.98 Amberline 8.0% $2.84 Monster Call 12.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +371.1% | $2.70 +18.9% | 40.0% | +111.5% | $2.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.57 Brother 6.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +234.5% | $20.54 +34.0% | 42.0% | +84.1% | $15.33 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.57 Brother 10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +306.3% | $16.91 +34.0% | 50.0% | +95.2% | $12.62 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.57 Brother 4.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +206.7% | $22.35 +33.7% | 48.0% | +79.4% | $16.72 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.57 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +263.1% | $18.73 +32.7% | 48.0% | +88.5% | $14.12 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.57 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +175.4% | $24.16 +29.8% | 54.0% | +73.5% | $18.62 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.57 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +398.3% | $13.30 +29.2% | 44.0% | +101.5% | $10.29 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.85 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +440.9% | $11.59 +22.3% | 36.0% | +95.4% | $9.48 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.67 Tooth Fairy  3.3% $37.19 Vogue  3.3% $35.90 Entombed  3.3% $15.27 | $290.04 +204.1% | $125.70 +31.8% | 30.0% | +113.2% | $95.37 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Printstream  5.0% $286.49 Legion of Anubis  5.0% $114.04 | $843.46 +64.8% | $617.79 +20.7% | 45.0% | +43.3% | $511.69 | — |