The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Marsh
1x $0.07
Leafhopper
4x $0.08
Acid Dart
1x $0.17
Copper Fiber
3x $0.09
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Run Run Run
10.0% $2.63
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $1.82
Green Line
10.0% $0.99
Late Night Transit
10.0% $0.89
2A2F
10.0% $0.74
Max Win
$4.61 (+277.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.45 (+18.7%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+111.2%
Cost
$1.22
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.22
Ask Price EV $1.45 (+18.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.30 (+6.1%)
Ask Profit $0.23 (+18.7%)
Bid Profit $0.07 (+6.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+12.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.07
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+277.9%)
Worst Case $0.40 (-66.9%)
Volatility +111.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%
Avg Win +$1.82
Avg Loss -$0.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.40 (-66.9%)
Std Dev $1.36
Avg Norm Float 0.1995
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 120h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 58S //TOTAL COST $1.22 //ASK PRICE EV $1.45 //BID PRICE EV $1.30 //ASK PROFIT $0.23 (+18.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.07 (+6.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +111.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$4.61
+$3.39
+277.9%
$3.81
+$2.59
+212.3%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.63
+$1.41
+115.7%
$2.46
+$1.24
+101.6%
$0.17
6.5%
—
WIN
12.0%
$1.82
+$0.60
+49.3%
$1.70
+$0.48
+39.3%
$0.12
6.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.99
-$0.23
-18.9%
$0.96
-$0.26
-21.3%
$0.03
3.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.89
-$0.33
-27.0%
$0.82
-$0.40
-32.8%
$0.07
7.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.74
-$0.48
-39.1%
$0.73
-$0.49
-40.2%
$0.01
1.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.44
-$0.78
-63.9%
$0.41
-$0.81
-66.4%
$0.03
6.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.41
-$0.81
-66.4%
$0.38
-$0.84
-68.9%
$0.03
7.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.40
-$0.82
-66.9%
$0.35
-$0.87
-71.3%
$0.05
13.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1356464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4405,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:46.495656Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11968799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.41050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:37.806861Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.109714,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11968799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.4035,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:17.035789Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.17155279999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 0.7434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 0.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:57.689107Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 0.99,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:16.453795Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 0.89,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:23.170947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14892678099999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.631,
"optimistic_value": 2.61,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:57.352784Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_85551644567b1e29a1dcb205",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:36.260501Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:18:13.009917Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "496102290329893811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:23:01.261547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "512990623227020543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:23:01.261547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:10.696605Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:23:01.261547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "514116688948728978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.037453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "498354089952584707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.037453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "490472738290711647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.037453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "493850490550802908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:13:32.663896Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Green Line 10.0% $3.23 Late Night Transit 10.0% $2.99 2A2F 10.0% $2.72 Run Run Run 10.0% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +174.4% | $2.08 +23.8% | 64.0% | +61.4% | $1.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 5.0% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Green Line 5.0% $0.99 Late Night Transit 5.0% $0.89 2A2F 5.0% $0.74 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.49 +33.4% | 37.0% | +116.2% | $1.12 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 2.5% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Green Line 2.5% $0.99 Late Night Transit 2.5% $0.86 2A2F 2.5% $0.75 | $4.61 +304.4% | $1.51 +32.8% | 38.5% | +117.9% | $1.14 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Green Line 7.5% $3.23 Late Night Transit 7.5% $2.99 2A2F 7.5% $2.72 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +195.5% | $1.94 +24.6% | 58.0% | +72.6% | $1.56 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  16.7% $64.86 Derailment  16.7% $45.18 Charged Up  16.7% $22.78 Sheet Lightning  25.0% $17.71 Glockingbird  25.0% $11.77 | $64.86 +162.6% | $29.51 +19.5% | 33.3% | +77.9% | $24.70 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Green Energy  30.0% $109.76 | $597.10 +108.3% | $344.97 +20.3% | 70.0% | +69.5% | $286.64 | — |