The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Snow Splash
1x $0.31
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.33
Electric Blue
1x $0.23
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.36
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
The Daily Deagle
7.5% $2.37
Creep
7.5% $2.36
Max Win
$4.46 (-19.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.80 (-49.2%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+14.2%
Cost
$5.51
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.51
Ask Price EV $2.80 (-49.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.74 (-50.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.71 (-49.2%)
Bid Profit $-2.77 (-50.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.71
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.77
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-19.0%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-65.5%)
Volatility +14.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 86.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-65.5%)
Std Dev $0.78
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 21S //TOTAL COST $5.51 //ASK PRICE EV $2.80 //BID PRICE EV $2.74 //ASK PROFIT $-2.71 (-49.2%) //BID PROFIT $-2.77 (-50.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +14.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
14.0%
$4.46
-$1.05
-19.0%
$4.43
-$1.08
-19.6%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.36
-$2.15
-39.0%
$3.34
-$2.17
-39.4%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.66
-$2.85
-51.8%
$2.62
-$2.89
-52.5%
$0.04
1.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.64
-$2.87
-52.1%
$2.62
-$2.89
-52.5%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.37
-$3.14
-56.9%
$2.25
-$3.26
-59.2%
$0.12
5.2%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.36
-$3.15
-57.2%
$2.34
-$3.17
-57.5%
$0.02
0.7%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.18
-$3.33
-60.5%
$2.10
-$3.41
-61.9%
$0.08
3.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.18
-$3.33
-60.5%
$2.00
-$3.51
-63.7%
$0.18
8.1%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$1.90
-$3.61
-65.5%
$1.86
-$3.65
-66.2%
$0.04
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3605,
"optimistic_value": 3.35,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:07.723007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0454675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:18.126531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:10.616732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1755,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.966216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.05596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.357,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:43.030855Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.040570999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.3735,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.1775,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:18.625638Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0454675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.9004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8248a341918078ebe1066059",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746188257911168",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:40.792433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "523123835628238690",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:58.571533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "494976390475599702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:31.875286Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "505109489448989120",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:17:13.675374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:40.480959Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "525375635594607271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.309873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "520872088107001092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.219474Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $2.37 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.11 | $3.36 +125.5% | $1.92 +29.1% | 63.5% | +46.4% | $1.49 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $2.37 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.27 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.89 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.11 | $3.37 +114.9% | $2.05 +30.3% | 69.0% | +44.8% | $1.57 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 12.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $2.37 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.27 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.89 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 | $3.37 +139.3% | $1.83 +30.0% | 58.0% | +49.0% | $1.41 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $2.36 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.11 | $3.36 +141.8% | $1.72 +23.5% | 52.5% | +49.3% | $1.39 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $2.36 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.11 | $3.36 +150.8% | $1.61 +20.1% | 47.0% | +51.0% | $1.34 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 6.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $2.36 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.11 | $3.36 +160.5% | $1.50 +16.7% | 41.5% | +52.5% | $1.29 | — |