The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Garter-9
1x $0.20
Polished Malachite
1x $0.31
Mustard Gas
1x $0.80
Basket Halftone
3x $0.11
Grey Ghost
2x $0.13
Steel Work
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
6.0% $10.66
Coral Bloom
11.7% $4.96
Tropical Breeze
6.0% $3.67
Red Tide
11.7% $3.31
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $2.24
Blush Pour
11.7% $2.21
Max Win
$10.66 (+279.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.05 (+8.4%)
Win %
35.3%
Volatility
+78.4%
Cost
$2.81
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.81
Ask Price EV $3.05 (+8.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.91 (+3.4%)
Ask Profit $0.24 (+8.4%)
Bid Profit $0.10 (+3.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+5.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Risk
Win Probability 35.3%
Loss Probability 64.7%
Best Case $10.66 (+279.4%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-45.4%)
Volatility +78.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 41.3%
Avg Win +$2.35
Avg Loss -$0.92
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-45.4%)
Std Dev $2.20
Avg Norm Float 0.0928
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 116h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 19S //TOTAL COST $2.81 //ASK PRICE EV $3.05 //BID PRICE EV $2.91 //ASK PROFIT $0.24 (+8.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.10 (+3.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.3% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +78.4% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.66
+$7.85
+279.4%
$9.81
+$7.00
+249.1%
$0.85
8.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$4.96
+$2.15
+76.5%
$4.92
+$2.11
+75.1%
$0.04
0.8%
—
WIN
6.0%
$3.67
+$0.86
+30.6%
$3.64
+$0.83
+29.5%
$0.03
0.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$3.31
+$0.50
+17.8%
$3.29
+$0.48
+17.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$2.24
-$0.57
-20.2%
$2.09
-$0.72
-25.6%
$0.15
6.8%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$2.21
-$0.60
-21.4%
$2.09
-$0.72
-25.6%
$0.12
5.3%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.84
-$0.97
-34.5%
$1.74
-$1.07
-38.1%
$0.10
5.4%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.78
-$1.03
-36.5%
$1.77
-$1.04
-37.0%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.57
-$1.24
-44.1%
$1.28
-$1.53
-54.4%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.56
-$1.25
-44.5%
$1.27
-$1.54
-54.8%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.53
-$1.28
-45.4%
$1.52
-$1.29
-45.9%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.046576961189999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.825646Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.06986539539,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.046395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.84,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:45.007635Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.055673999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0695925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.3104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:13.224156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.06295161249,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.208,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:23.854281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0695925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0630972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:14.608065Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055673999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.051034500000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055673999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:57.658360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7d099ea6c159a6c4b906f4b8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724590626520081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:17:22.919721Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:31.249530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:22.755478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:46.594295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:46.594295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:02:03.513111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:35.114112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:32.232223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "502857689862568384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:24.044436Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:56.613225Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 6.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 6.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +406.6% | $1.15 +26.5% | 58.7% | +95.7% | $0.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 3.3% $1.36 Red Tide 3.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 3.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 3.3% $0.95 | $4.61 +334.9% | $1.42 +34.4% | 35.3% | +121.8% | $1.06 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 Red Tide 5.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 5.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +352.0% | $1.37 +34.2% | 38.0% | +120.9% | $1.02 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Red Tide 8.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 8.3% $0.95 | $4.61 +385.3% | $1.26 +32.7% | 53.3% | +113.9% | $0.95 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 Red Tide 6.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 6.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +361.0% | $1.32 +31.9% | 44.0% | +116.2% | $1.00 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 1.7% $1.36 Red Tide 1.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 1.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 1.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +308.0% | $1.48 +31.4% | 37.7% | +118.4% | $1.13 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +390.4% | $1.21 +28.6% | 56.0% | +104.8% | $0.94 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 4.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 4.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 13.3% $1.36 Red Tide 13.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 13.3% $0.94 | $4.61 +423.9% | $1.09 +23.8% | 61.3% | +82.8% | $0.88 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint  26.7% $7.23 Bleeding Edge  26.7% $5.59 Sheet Lightning  10.0% $5.24 Glockingbird  10.0% $3.61 | $15.94 +140.1% | $8.55 +28.8% | 53.3% | +68.9% | $6.64 | — |