The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Fubar
1x $0.31
Spectre
1x $0.65
Light Box
2x $0.23
Motorized
2x $0.29
Dark Sigil
2x $0.32
Hideout
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Ghost Crusader
4.0% $10.42
Re-Entry
4.0% $10.16
Black Tie
4.0% $8.33
Firefight
4.0% $6.82
Etch Lord
16.0% $4.45
Block-18
16.0% $4.19
Max Win
$10.42 (+200.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.25 (+22.4%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+65.8%
Cost
$3.47
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.47
Ask Price EV $4.25 (+22.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.78 (+9.1%)
Ask Profit $0.78 (+22.4%)
Bid Profit $0.31 (+9.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.46 (+13.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.78
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $10.42 (+200.2%)
Worst Case $2.02 (-41.8%)
Volatility +65.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 16.0%
Avg Win +$2.25
Avg Loss -$0.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.02 (-41.8%)
Std Dev $2.28
Avg Norm Float 0.1495
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 144h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Spectre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 54S //TOTAL COST $3.47 //ASK PRICE EV $4.25 //BID PRICE EV $3.78 //ASK PROFIT $0.78 (+22.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.31 (+9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $10.42 //VOLATILITY +65.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.42
+$6.95
+200.2%
$9.69
+$6.22
+179.3%
$0.73
7.0%
—
BIG WIN
4.0%
$10.16
+$6.69
+192.7%
$8.63
+$5.16
+148.7%
$1.53
15.0%
—
BIG WIN
4.0%
$8.33
+$4.86
+140.0%
$6.87
+$3.40
+98.0%
$1.46
17.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$6.82
+$3.35
+96.7%
$5.52
+$2.05
+59.1%
$1.30
19.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.45
+$0.98
+28.2%
$3.86
+$0.39
+11.2%
$0.59
13.2%
—
WIN
16.0%
$4.19
+$0.72
+20.8%
$3.88
+$0.41
+11.8%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$4.07
+$0.60
+17.2%
$3.70
+$0.23
+6.6%
$0.37
9.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.32
-$0.15
-4.4%
$2.85
-$0.62
-17.9%
$0.47
14.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.63
-$0.84
-24.2%
$2.60
-$0.87
-25.1%
$0.03
1.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.02
-$1.45
-41.8%
$1.86
-$1.61
-46.4%
$0.16
7.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.6305,
"optimistic_value": 2.62,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:52.318734Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.10045874999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4475,
"optimistic_value": 4.43,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:47.747830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3175,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:12.684365Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.09253194719999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.0185,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:45.638633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 4.0665000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 3.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:00:57.163983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 6.824,
"optimistic_value": 6.81,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 5.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:17:28.696002Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 10.4185,
"optimistic_value": 10.24,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T14:57:12.762479Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06429359999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 10.1575,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 8.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.855036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.11213999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 8.329,
"optimistic_value": 8.14,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.718736Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6d1b225fbc211ac10da5da84",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "645843641569115411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:17.661161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-fc1505f10422",
"listing_id": "525375522203957047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Spectre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Spectre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fc1505f10422.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:24.956424Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "507361289453814925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:38.086604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:17.891573Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872088106698692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:55.249753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:38.086604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:17.891573Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:13.182530Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:2+collection-set-community-33:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Re-Entry 4.0% $4.88 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $3.69 Firefight 4.0% $2.63 Black Tie 4.0% $2.62 Red Astor 4.0% $2.35 | $4.88 +111.1% | $2.49 +7.8% | 36.0% | +37.5% | $2.31 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Ghost Crusader 4.0% $39.11 Firefight 4.0% $23.12 Black Tie 4.0% $20.99 Red Astor 4.0% $13.77 Etch Lord 16.0% $13.06 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 | $39.11 +255.6% | $11.21 +1.9% | 32.0% | +58.6% | $11.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 6.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 6.0% $10.16 Black Tie 6.0% $8.33 Firefight 6.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +174.9% | $4.71 +24.3% | 58.0% | +58.0% | $3.79 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 8.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 8.0% $10.16 Black Tie 8.0% $8.33 Firefight 8.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +149.8% | $5.18 +24.1% | 56.0% | +55.6% | $4.17 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 2.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 2.0% $10.16 Black Tie 2.0% $8.33 Firefight 2.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +241.6% | $3.78 +24.1% | 64.0% | +50.8% | $3.05 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Primal Saber  3.3% $18.44 Asiimov  3.3% $18.33 Fleet Flock  3.3% $16.50 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.82 | $23.51 +65.8% | $15.95 +12.5% | 70.0% | +40.6% | $14.18 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  20.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  20.0% $177.46 Inheritance  30.0% $135.61 Chrome Cannon  30.0% $64.35 | $214.02 +72.6% | $138.28 +11.5% | 70.0% | +44.9% | $124.00 | — |