The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +28.3%Factory New -7.3%Field-Tested +20.9%Minimal Wear +21.7%Well-Worn +1.9%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Reef Grief

1x $0.27

Yeti Camo

2x $0.29

Royal Baroque

2x $0.37

Mint Fan

2x $0.52

Shredded

1x $0.31

Rose Hex

2x $0.34

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $6.93

Mulberry

10.0% $5.01

Glitched Paint

10.0% $2.91

Bleeding Edge

10.0% $2.15

Royal Guard

35.0% $1.31

Max Win

$6.93 (+81.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$3.89 (+1.9%)

Win %

45.0%

Volatility

+64.6%

Cost

$3.82

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.82

Ask Price EV $3.89 (+1.9%)

Bid Price EV $3.32 (-13.0%)

Ask Profit $0.07 (+1.9%)

Bid Profit $-0.50 (-13.0%)

Liquidity Gap $0.57 (+14.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.07

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.50

Risk

Win Probability 45.0%

Loss Probability 55.0%

Best Case $6.93 (+81.4%)

Worst Case $1.31 (-65.7%)

Volatility +64.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%

Avg Win +$2.68

Avg Loss -$2.07

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.31 (-65.7%)

Std Dev $2.47

Avg Norm Float 0.4499

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 20m

Oldest Output Price 141h 12m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.29 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Field-Tested

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 24S //TOTAL COST $3.82 //ASK PRICE EV $3.89 //BID PRICE EV $3.32 //ASK PROFIT $0.07 (+1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.50 (-13.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +64.6% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.33743999999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.26995199999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.311,
      "optimistic_value": 1.29,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:29.832681Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.33743999999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 5.0065,
      "optimistic_value": 4.94,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 4.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.3014464,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 2.9084999999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 2.8,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 2.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:07.851365Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.26995199999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 2.152,
      "optimistic_value": 2.11,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 1.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:14.461057Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_6a1ada70f83eea63efe24804",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "523123888072242190",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:17.087809Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "505109489448724844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.983649Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.983649Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "524249787961450167",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:07.494001Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "512990789044788503",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:07.494001Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "500605837397096555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:25.460143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "514116636507281046",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:25.460143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "493850490550053316",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:28.290970Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "516368488725524570",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:06:12.103306Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "525375688036290175",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:06:12.103306Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31	$6.94 +118.3%	$4.08 +28.3%	55.0%	+77.4%	$3.18	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Mulberry 10.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 10.0% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $16.98 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.94	$38.92 +87.3%	$25.29 +21.7%	45.0%	+54.8%	$20.78	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.95 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.50	$18.08 +95.6%	$11.17 +20.9%	45.0%	+63.4%	$9.24	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.10 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.31	$6.94 +129.2%	$4.02 +32.7%	60.0%	+67.8%	$3.03	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31	$6.94 +126.9%	$4.04 +32.0%	58.3%	+71.9%	$3.06	—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.31	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.00 +31.7%	61.7%	+62.4%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.31	$6.94 +123.3%	$4.06 +30.4%	56.7%	+75.1%	$3.11	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.11 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58	$18.08 +128.2%	$9.78 +23.5%	35.0%	+60.7%	$7.92	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94	$38.92 +85.9%	$25.67 +22.6%	46.7%	+56.3%	$20.94	—
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50	$18.08 +122.3%	$9.95 +22.4%	36.7%	+62.3%	$8.13	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88	$38.92 +83.1%	$26.02 +22.4%	48.3%	+57.3%	$21.26	—