The Achroma Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Aeolian Light
1x $0.25
Sky Mandala
3x $0.34
Fraise Crane
3x $0.35
Warm Blooded
2x $0.49
Earth Mandala
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $9.85
Breakthrough
5.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
5.0% $3.20
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.11
Max Win
$9.85 (+117.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.85 (+28.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+82.0%
Cost
$4.54
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.54
Ask Price EV $5.85 (+28.8%)
Bid Price EV $4.27 (-6.0%)
Ask Profit $1.31 (+28.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.27 (-6.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.58 (+34.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.27
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+117.0%)
Worst Case $2.11 (-53.6%)
Volatility +82.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.94
Avg Loss -$2.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.11 (-53.6%)
Std Dev $3.72
Avg Norm Float 0.5481
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 140h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 14S //TOTAL COST $4.54 //ASK PRICE EV $5.85 //BID PRICE EV $4.27 //ASK PROFIT $1.31 (+28.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.27 (-6.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +82.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
45.0%
$9.85
+$5.31
+117.0%
$6.64
+$2.10
+46.3%
$3.21
32.6%
—
WIN
5.0%
$6.12
+$1.58
+34.7%
$5.33
+$0.79
+17.4%
$0.79
12.9%
—
LOSS THIN BID
5.0%
$3.20
-$1.34
-29.6%
$2.35
-$2.19
-48.2%
$0.85
26.5%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.11
-$2.43
-53.6%
$1.99
-$2.55
-56.2%
$0.12
5.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.383691,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.383691,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1075,
"optimistic_value": 2.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:34.742372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.4110975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 6.1165,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.383691,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 3.1965,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:58.816197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_67598bda199c3fa2fc4da734",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:08.297780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:55.028005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:35.532241Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:35.532241Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:55.028005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290329240123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:17.711649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "490472790737265639",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:46.041903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:17.711649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "505109489448503948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:16.094416Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:18.369338Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.33 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 | $13.33 +86.6% | $9.25 +29.5% | 60.0% | +53.5% | $7.14 | — |