The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Focus
1x $0.25
Broken Record
1x $0.35
Bullfrog
1x $0.40
Creep
3x $0.36
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.43
Grip Tape
1x $0.77
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $12.05
Trace Lock
35.0% $5.01
Liquidation
6.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
6.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
6.0% $1.07
Ocular
6.0% $1.02
Max Win
$12.05 (+129.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.46 (+23.4%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+83.3%
Cost
$5.24
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.24
Ask Price EV $6.46 (+23.4%)
Bid Price EV $5.57 (+6.4%)
Ask Profit $1.22 (+23.4%)
Bid Profit $0.33 (+6.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.89 (+17.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.22
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $12.05 (+129.9%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-80.5%)
Volatility +83.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$6.81
Avg Loss -$1.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-80.5%)
Std Dev $4.36
Avg Norm Float 0.1992
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 155h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 14S //TOTAL COST $5.24 //ASK PRICE EV $6.46 //BID PRICE EV $5.57 //ASK PROFIT $1.22 (+23.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.33 (+6.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $12.05 //VOLATILITY +83.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$12.05
+$6.81
+129.9%
$10.32
+$5.08
+96.9%
$1.73
14.3%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$5.01
-$0.23
-4.4%
$4.30
-$0.94
-17.9%
$0.71
14.2%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$4.01
-$1.23
-23.4%
$3.61
-$1.63
-31.1%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.09
-$4.15
-79.2%
$1.04
-$4.20
-80.2%
$0.05
4.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.07
-$4.17
-79.6%
$0.99
-$4.25
-81.1%
$0.08
7.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.02
-$4.22
-80.5%
$1.00
-$4.24
-80.9%
$0.02
2.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.02
-$4.22
-80.5%
$0.97
-$4.27
-81.5%
$0.05
5.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14941500000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.139454,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 5.01,
"optimistic_value": 5.01,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:18.928439Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0675000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:36.020545Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.0875000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:51.579877Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:37.970121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:00.218587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5d7f907e93d6a0668d1be47d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "515242588555628413",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:08.957364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "510739041955254082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:13.453935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "511864888985506221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:31.093978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "492724643508541377",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:01.421513Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "523123940969688190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "510738989040034450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "516368541589358198",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:01.421513Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "499480042829065105",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:31.404821Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "648097416149991260",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:36.177218Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "497228243056065977",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:25.086731Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 35.0% $13.99 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.26 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.11 Ocular 6.0% $2.08 | $27.06 +99.7% | $15.33 +13.2% | 70.0% | +67.5% | $13.55 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.61 Liquidation 6.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.24 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.96 Continuum 6.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.85 | $5.61 +89.0% | $3.12 +4.9% | 35.0% | +61.6% | $2.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.09 Ocular 2.0% $1.04 Angel Eyes 2.0% $1.02 | $12.05 +91.9% | $7.81 +24.3% | 45.0% | +61.3% | $6.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.01 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.04 Ocular 8.0% $1.04 | $12.05 +157.5% | $5.77 +23.4% | 60.0% | +89.6% | $4.68 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 4.0% $1.04 Ocular 4.0% $1.02 | $12.05 +107.0% | $7.15 +22.9% | 40.0% | +69.3% | $5.82 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $5.03 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 Ocular 10.0% $1.02 | $12.05 +187.6% | $5.09 +21.5% | 50.0% | +98.7% | $4.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 20.0% $5.01 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 Ocular 12.0% $1.02 | $12.05 +223.0% | $4.40 +17.9% | 52.0% | +106.6% | $3.73 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 15.0% $5.01 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.04 Ocular 14.0% $1.04 | $12.05 +267.3% | $3.71 +13.1% | 44.0% | +112.6% | $3.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.05 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $5.01 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.26 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.11 Ocular 16.0% $2.08 | $12.05 +199.7% | $4.29 +6.6% | 36.0% | +79.0% | $4.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  20.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  26.7% $11.85 Smoking Kills  26.7% $10.53 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $8.68 | $27.17 +139.8% | $13.72 +21.1% | 46.7% | +60.3% | $11.33 | — |