The Ascent Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Electric Blue
1x $0.20
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.36
Polished Malachite
3x $0.29
Marsh
2x $0.38
Acid Dart
1x $0.41
Mustard Gas
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $10.66
Yeti Camo
6.0% $4.46
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Mint Fan
6.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
6.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
6.0% $2.64
Max Win
$10.66 (+106.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.59 (-30.3%)
Win %
14.0%
Volatility
+58.0%
Cost
$5.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.16
Ask Price EV $3.59 (-30.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.38 (-34.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.57 (-30.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.78 (-34.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+4.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.57
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.78
Risk
Win Probability 14.0%
Loss Probability 86.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+106.6%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-70.3%)
Volatility +58.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$5.50
Avg Loss -$2.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-70.3%)
Std Dev $2.99
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 119h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 17M 21S //TOTAL COST $5.16 //ASK PRICE EV $3.59 //BID PRICE EV $3.38 //ASK PROFIT $-1.57 (-30.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.78 (-34.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 14.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +58.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.66
+$5.50
+106.6%
$9.81
+$4.65
+90.1%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$4.46
-$0.70
-13.6%
$4.43
-$0.73
-14.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.67
-$1.49
-28.9%
$3.64
-$1.52
-29.5%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$3.37
-$1.79
-34.6%
$3.34
-$1.82
-35.3%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.65
-$2.51
-48.6%
$2.62
-$2.54
-49.2%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.64
-$2.52
-48.8%
$2.62
-$2.54
-49.2%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.26
-$2.90
-56.3%
$1.99
-$3.17
-61.4%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.66
-$3.50
-67.8%
$1.27
-$3.89
-75.4%
$0.39
23.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.56
-$3.60
-69.9%
$1.49
-$3.67
-71.1%
$0.07
4.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.53
-$3.63
-70.3%
$1.52
-$3.64
-70.5%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0475592,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:12.040101Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.5554999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:16.198151Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.038467,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:11.775371Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.053937Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.045461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:39.659109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:02.538784Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.257,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:31.492576Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_565108203091c78ca520201b",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:16.228466Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:42.236320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:42.236320Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "494976338033140098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:15.620727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "520872088106929236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:15.620727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:15.620727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "525375688037451211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:51.151974Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:24.884358Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:34.578116Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:51.151974Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $3.67 Mint Fan 6.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.79 | $4.61 +160.5% | $2.34 +32.3% | 52.0% | +58.0% | $1.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 4.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 4.0% $1.82 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.79 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 16.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 16.0% $1.08 | $4.61 +365.7% | $1.28 +29.5% | 72.0% | +72.2% | $0.99 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard  20.0% $5.69 Sheet Lightning  30.0% $5.22 Glockingbird  30.0% $3.62 | $18.08 +203.8% | $7.40 +24.4% | 20.0% | +90.7% | $5.95 | — |