The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Slag
1x $0.29
Dezastre
1x $0.34
Blush Pour
2x $0.34
Red Tide
3x $0.38
Shredded
1x $0.80
Rose Hex
2x $1.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $15.50
Glitched Paint
26.7% $6.50
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.42
Block-18
4.0% $1.51
Analog Input
4.0% $1.06
Etch Lord
4.0% $0.75
Max Win
$15.50 (+162.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.50 (+26.9%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+88.0%
Cost
$5.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.91
Ask Price EV $7.50 (+26.9%)
Bid Price EV $7.07 (+19.7%)
Ask Profit $1.59 (+26.9%)
Bid Profit $1.16 (+19.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.43 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.16
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $15.50 (+162.2%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-87.9%)
Volatility +88.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$5.09
Avg Loss -$2.41
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-87.8%)
Std Dev $5.20
Avg Norm Float 0.1993
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 2h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 23S //TOTAL COST $5.91 //ASK PRICE EV $7.50 //BID PRICE EV $7.07 //ASK PROFIT $1.59 (+26.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.16 (+19.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $15.50 //VOLATILITY +88.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$15.50
+$9.59
+162.2%
$14.49
+$8.58
+145.2%
$1.01
6.5%
—
SMALL WIN
26.7%
$6.50
+$0.59
+10.0%
$6.18
+$0.27
+4.6%
$0.32
5.0%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$5.42
-$0.49
-8.3%
$5.20
-$0.71
-12.0%
$0.22
4.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.51
-$4.40
-74.4%
$1.31
-$4.60
-77.8%
$0.20
13.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.06
-$4.85
-82.1%
$0.98
-$4.93
-83.4%
$0.08
7.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.75
-$5.17
-87.4%
$0.69
-$5.22
-88.3%
$0.06
7.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.72
-$5.19
-87.8%
$0.69
-$5.22
-88.3%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.71
-$5.20
-87.9%
$0.66
-$5.25
-88.8%
$0.05
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.149505,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.4975,
"optimistic_value": 15.27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:30.576620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1335578,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.502,
"optimistic_value": 6.39,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:31.874331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.11960399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.4195,
"optimistic_value": 5.36,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:45:17.196414Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.7144999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:38.087267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.1339315625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.5135,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:48:39.124348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.745,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:52.080234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.721,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:06:28.900105Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.12336355239999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.057,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:29.385254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_49b61898798d18719d16d7ab",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "490472843633560503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:53.121722Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "521998040962973094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:59.594645Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "506235442368498516",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:07.607433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "518620341243851032",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:07.607433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "491598743581017674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "505109437007054864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "526501535292841697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850543433108496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:48.925319Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "496102290329575715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:50.584121Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "496102290329576111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:50.584121Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 26.7% $32.23 Glitched Paint 26.7% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $15.10 Block-18 4.0% $4.17 Analog Input 4.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 4.0% $1.62 | $32.23 +101.2% | $17.55 +9.6% | 53.3% | +57.6% | $16.02 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 26.7% $4.87 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.97 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $2.08 Block-18 4.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.72 Just Smile 4.0% $0.66 | $4.87 +78.3% | $2.78 +1.9% | 53.3% | +49.3% | $2.73 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 26.7% $4.87 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.97 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $2.08 Block-18 4.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.73 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 | $4.87 +77.0% | $2.79 +1.3% | 53.3% | +48.8% | $2.75 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.41 Block-18 6.0% $1.51 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Just Smile 6.0% $0.76 | $15.50 +205.1% | $6.71 +32.1% | 70.0% | +96.6% | $5.08 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.41 Block-18 14.0% $1.51 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.81 | $15.50 +480.4% | $3.43 +28.4% | 30.0% | +160.0% | $2.67 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.42 Block-18 2.0% $1.51 Analog Input 2.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.81 | $15.50 +124.9% | $8.36 +21.4% | 30.0% | +67.9% | $6.89 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.50 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.42 Block-18 16.0% $1.51 Analog Input 16.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.75 | $15.50 +624.2% | $2.59 +20.9% | 20.0% | +173.4% | $2.14 | — |