The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +7.5%Factory New +13.5%Field-Tested +6.9%Minimal Wear +22.7%Well-Worn +2.9%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Yeti Camo

3x $0.26

Cobalt Paisley

1x $0.34

Reef Grief

2x $0.36

Late Night Transit

1x $0.48

Green Line

3x $0.55

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

30.0% $6.94

Derailment

13.3% $6.31

Charged Up

13.3% $4.93

Whiteout

13.3% $4.09

Royal Guard

30.0% $1.11

Max Win

$6.94 (+67.3%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.46 (+7.5%)

Win %

56.7%

Volatility

+57.7%

Cost

$4.15

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.15

Ask Price EV $4.46 (+7.5%)

Bid Price EV $3.98 (-4.1%)

Ask Profit $0.31 (+7.5%)

Bid Profit $-0.17 (-4.1%)

Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+11.6%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.17

Risk

Win Probability 56.7%

Loss Probability 43.3%

Best Case $6.94 (+67.3%)

Worst Case $1.11 (-73.3%)

Volatility +57.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$2.17

Avg Loss -$2.12

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.11 (-73.3%)

Std Dev $2.39

Avg Norm Float 0.5414

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 25m

Oldest Output Price 156h 46m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.55 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.60 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 59S //TOTAL COST $4.15 //ASK PRICE EV $4.46 //BID PRICE EV $3.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+7.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.17 (-4.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +57.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.40604250000000003,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.324834,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.1085,
      "optimistic_value": 1.07,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:47.532789Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.378973,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 6.314,
      "optimistic_value": 6.16,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.15,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:20.889065Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.5689066,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.0885,
      "optimistic_value": 4.05,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 3.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:19.371807Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.54139,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.88,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 3.75,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_36ca49a744efb549fc496b6b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "494976390477371658",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:02.892318Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "498354089954014591",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:02.892318Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "519746241189717476",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:02.892318Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:31.292416Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "509613142169138691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:09.070876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "514116741798243282",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:09.070876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "501731842662742421",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:00.098036Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "491598743581673306",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:03.693065Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "527627540537546492",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:03.693065Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "498354142899910651",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:03.693065Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Charged Up 13.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.46	$64.86 +142.4%	$32.83 +22.7%	56.7%	+63.1%	$26.76	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.46	$64.86 +92.0%	$38.37 +13.5%	70.0%	+56.7%	$33.79	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Derailment 13.3% $14.69 Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.38 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56	$18.08 +70.7%	$11.32 +6.9%	43.3%	+49.6%	$10.59	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Derailment 13.3% $6.31 Charged Up 13.3% $5.48 Whiteout 13.3% $4.09 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.11	$6.93 +57.5%	$4.53 +2.9%	56.7%	+54.8%	$4.40	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Charged Up 6.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29	$64.86 +173.2%	$29.42 +23.9%	53.3%	+64.8%	$23.74	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Charged Up 10.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.47	$64.86 +155.3%	$31.17 +22.7%	55.0%	+63.8%	$25.41	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Charged Up 16.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.29	$64.86 +129.4%	$34.45 +21.8%	58.3%	+61.7%	$28.28	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Charged Up 3.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.47	$64.86 +182.6%	$27.86 +21.4%	51.7%	+61.8%	$22.95	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Charged Up 20.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.46	$64.86 +117.4%	$36.14 +21.1%	60.0%	+59.4%	$29.84	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Stratosphere 30.0% $131.31	$597.10 +97.4%	$351.43 +16.2%	35.0%	+63.4%	$302.51	—