The Prisma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Crypsis
2x $2.61
Fusion
3x $0.73
Bock Blocks
5x $0.74
↓
Possible Outputs
Atheris
4.0% $61.14
Electrum
16.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
16.0% $31.66
Light Rail
4.0% $27.94
Amberline
16.0% $18.87
Galigator
16.0% $14.51
Max Win
$61.14 (+215.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.38 (+31.0%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+81.3%
Cost
$19.37
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.37
Ask Price EV $25.38 (+31.0%)
Bid Price EV $21.77 (+12.4%)
Ask Profit $6.01 (+31.0%)
Bid Profit $2.40 (+12.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.61 (+18.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.01
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.40
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $61.14 (+215.6%)
Worst Case $4.41 (-77.2%)
Volatility +81.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 44.0%
Avg Win +$22.71
Avg Loss -$5.12
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.95 (-53.8%)
Std Dev $15.75
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Crypsis
—
Factory New
$2.61 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Crypsis
—
Factory New
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.46 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.56 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 37S //TOTAL COST $19.37 //ASK PRICE EV $25.38 //BID PRICE EV $21.77 //ASK PROFIT $6.01 (+31.0%) //BID PROFIT $2.40 (+12.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $61.14 //VOLATILITY +81.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$61.14
+$41.77
+215.6%
$55.55
+$36.18
+186.8%
$5.59
9.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$51.27
+$31.90
+164.7%
$43.51
+$24.14
+124.6%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$31.66
+$12.29
+63.4%
$29.45
+$10.08
+52.0%
$2.21
7.0%
—
WIN
4.0%
$27.94
+$8.57
+44.3%
$23.62
+$4.25
+21.9%
$4.32
15.5%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$18.87
-$0.50
-2.6%
$12.97
-$6.40
-33.0%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$14.51
-$4.86
-25.1%
$13.05
-$6.32
-32.6%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.57
-$5.80
-29.9%
$11.82
-$7.55
-39.0%
$1.75
12.9%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$12.52
-$6.85
-35.3%
$10.29
-$9.08
-46.9%
$2.23
17.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.95
-$10.42
-53.8%
$7.41
-$11.96
-61.7%
$1.54
17.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.41
-$14.96
-77.2%
$4.09
-$15.28
-78.9%
$0.32
7.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-22|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-22"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.574,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.912966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d6cf8565026b",
"realistic_value": 61.1375,
"optimistic_value": 60,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Atheris",
"conservative_value": 55.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:47.744152Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d6cf8565026b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.062793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2a0e222beb58",
"realistic_value": 27.9415,
"optimistic_value": 27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Light Rail",
"conservative_value": 23.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:32.370221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a0e222beb58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-640691d10403",
"realistic_value": 8.954,
"optimistic_value": 8.94,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gauss",
"conservative_value": 7.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Gauss (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:37.544387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-640691d10403.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055816000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c310cd1bc7ff",
"realistic_value": 12.5235,
"optimistic_value": 12.38,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Bamboozle",
"conservative_value": 10.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:38.292260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c310cd1bc7ff.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.027908000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b720620ba156",
"realistic_value": 4.407500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.32,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 4.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:23.176273Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b720620ba156.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3213ee07c16152ed77502c9d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c5816102c9ab",
"listing_id": "505109542380261404",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Crypsis",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5816102c9ab.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:18.006282Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-c5816102c9ab",
"listing_id": "497228190142245845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-22",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Crypsis",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5816102c9ab.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:18.006282Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "503983642533640231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:37.328074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "493850543433131140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.913374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487242223022158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.913374Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.913374Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "497228243055300185",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:46.103204Z"
},
{
"price": 2.46,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "506235389470490196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:28.772828Z"
},
{
"price": 2.56,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "500605889842157771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:46.103204Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "490472790738237423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:28.772828Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-22:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Atheris 4.0% $14.96 Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Light Rail 4.0% $5.64 Galigator 16.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.14 | $14.96 +247.9% | $5.21 +21.1% | 40.0% | +73.2% | $4.30 | — |
The Prisma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Atheris 4.0% $26.31 Electrum 16.0% $16.94 Light Rail 4.0% $12.13 Firebreathing 16.0% $10.78 Amberline 16.0% $6.01 Galigator 16.0% $5.43 | $26.31 +204.9% | $8.99 +4.2% | 40.0% | +59.6% | $8.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Atheris 2.0% $61.14 Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Light Rail 2.0% $27.94 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 | $61.14 +204.8% | $25.68 +28.0% | 40.0% | +67.0% | $20.06 | — |
The Prisma Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Atheris 6.0% $61.14 Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Light Rail 6.0% $27.94 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 | $61.14 +211.3% | $25.08 +27.7% | 40.0% | +72.3% | $19.64 | — |
The Prisma Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Atheris 8.0% $61.14 Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Light Rail 8.0% $27.94 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 | $61.14 +208.5% | $24.78 +25.0% | 40.0% | +73.7% | $19.82 | — |
The Prisma Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Atheris 10.0% $61.14 Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Light Rail 10.0% $27.94 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 | $61.14 +200.9% | $24.49 +20.5% | 40.0% | +73.9% | $20.32 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi  26.7% $60.46 Deathgaze  26.7% $58.67 Momentum  6.7% $40.40 Skull Crusher  6.7% $20.49 Incinegator  6.7% $9.94 | $290.04 +219.4% | $113.83 +25.4% | 26.7% | +118.2% | $90.80 | — |
The Prisma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 The Emperor  5.0% $714.83 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Angry Mob  5.0% $147.19 | $843.46 +61.3% | $640.86 +22.5% | 50.0% | +39.1% | $522.97 | — |