The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $0.32
Scrawl
1x $0.41
Necro Jr.
3x $0.52
Spirit Board
1x $1.32
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.72
Scumbria
3x $1.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Stone Cold
7.5% $55.82
Nebula Crusader
7.5% $24.43
Special Delivery
7.5% $23.45
Wingshot
7.5% $22.32
Ticket to Hell
14.0% $10.13
Night Terror
14.0% $8.12
Max Win
$55.82 (+329.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.60 (+4.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+109.4%
Cost
$13.01
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $13.01
Ask Price EV $13.60 (+4.5%)
Bid Price EV $10.89 (-16.3%)
Ask Profit $0.59 (+4.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.12 (-16.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.71 (+20.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.59
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.12
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $55.82 (+329.0%)
Worst Case $2.45 (-81.2%)
Volatility +109.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%
Avg Win +$18.50
Avg Loss -$7.09
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.45 (-81.2%)
Std Dev $14.24
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 146h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Minimal Wear
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Minimal Wear
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Minimal Wear
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 39S //TOTAL COST $13.01 //ASK PRICE EV $13.60 //BID PRICE EV $10.89 //ASK PROFIT $0.59 (+4.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.12 (-16.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $55.82 //VOLATILITY +109.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$55.82
+$42.81
+329.0%
$46.01
+$33.00
+253.7%
$9.81
17.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$24.43
+$11.42
+87.8%
$19.55
+$6.54
+50.3%
$4.88
20.0%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
7.5%
$23.45
+$10.44
+80.2%
$11.36
-$1.65
-12.7%
$12.09
51.6%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$22.32
+$9.31
+71.6%
$19.45
+$6.44
+49.5%
$2.87
12.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$10.13
-$2.89
-22.2%
$8.42
-$4.59
-35.3%
$1.71
16.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$8.12
-$4.89
-37.6%
$7.88
-$5.13
-39.4%
$0.24
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$5.94
-$7.07
-54.4%
$5.08
-$7.93
-61.0%
$0.86
14.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.99
-$10.03
-77.1%
$2.62
-$10.39
-79.9%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.45
-$10.56
-81.2%
$2.13
-$10.88
-83.6%
$0.32
13.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-9|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.939,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:42.534576Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 8.119,
"optimistic_value": 7.93,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:16.557624Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0468933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0531924,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.45,
"optimistic_value": 2.45,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:25.107605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.062991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d7cafe33cee",
"realistic_value": 55.8175,
"optimistic_value": 55.24,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Stone Cold",
"conservative_value": 46.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:31.959846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d7cafe33cee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fe2ecdf6f921",
"realistic_value": 24.4315,
"optimistic_value": 23,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Nebula Crusader",
"conservative_value": 19.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:09.234875Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fe2ecdf6f921.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.043393799999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3994ae535237",
"realistic_value": 23.4495,
"optimistic_value": 18.91,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Special Delivery",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T09:05:20.986759Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3994ae535237.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.062991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa792cc15a05",
"realistic_value": 22.3235,
"optimistic_value": 20.99,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Wingshot",
"conservative_value": 19.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:28.212766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa792cc15a05.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_30dbe05c529937ed6aface10",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "514116523130036466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:53.768367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "507361289452933933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:17.099580Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "501730992860193137",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:53.844137Z"
},
{
"price": 1.32,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "506234592362006352",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:27.294032Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:06.683028Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746022670275764",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:11.430271Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "506234592360069588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:11.430271Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "507361237010025157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:23.506244Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "512990736599863619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:23.506244Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "511864091771105733",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:23.506244Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:7+collection-set-community-9:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $4.54 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +413.5% | $4.83 +24.2% | 58.0% | +116.1% | $3.89 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $9.05 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +339.0% | $5.25 +15.3% | 30.0% | +98.9% | $4.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 10.0% $19.97 Wingshot 10.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 10.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 10.0% $4.54 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +325.9% | $5.68 +21.2% | 30.0% | +104.1% | $4.69 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $4.54 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +492.7% | $3.98 +18.2% | 52.0% | +117.4% | $3.37 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Shadow Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 12.5% $19.97 Wingshot 12.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 12.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 12.5% $4.54 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +249.2% | $6.53 +14.2% | 37.5% | +89.6% | $5.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Kill Confirmed  15.0% $447.62 Golden Coil  15.0% $435.84 Nightwish  35.0% $109.07 Starlight Protector  35.0% $98.54 | $447.62 +157.3% | $205.18 +18.0% | 30.0% | +89.1% | $173.95 | — |