The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Vendetta
1x $1.15
Deep Relief
1x $1.17
Light Box
1x $0.21
Hideout
2x $0.29
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Irezumi
1x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Exoskeleton
4.0% $25.73
Parallax
4.0% $19.79
Dezastre
4.0% $17.68
Clear Polymer
4.0% $13.86
Gold Bismuth
4.0% $13.13
Etch Lord
16.0% $4.43
Max Win
$25.73 (+429.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.25 (+28.5%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+129.5%
Cost
$4.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.86
Ask Price EV $6.25 (+28.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.11 (+5.2%)
Ask Profit $1.39 (+28.5%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+5.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.13 (+23.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.39
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $25.73 (+429.3%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-60.8%)
Volatility +129.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$13.18
Avg Loss -$1.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-60.8%)
Std Dev $6.29
Avg Norm Float 0.1492
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Vendetta
—
Field-Tested
$1.15 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Deep Relief
—
Field-Tested
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 01S //TOTAL COST $4.86 //ASK PRICE EV $6.25 //BID PRICE EV $5.11 //ASK PROFIT $1.39 (+28.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+5.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $25.73 //VOLATILITY +129.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$25.73
+$20.87
+429.3%
$21.31
+$16.45
+338.5%
$4.42
17.2%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$19.79
+$14.93
+307.2%
$13.29
+$8.43
+173.5%
$6.50
32.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$17.68
+$12.82
+263.7%
$13.37
+$8.51
+175.1%
$4.31
24.4%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$13.86
+$9.00
+185.2%
$10.28
+$5.42
+111.5%
$3.58
25.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
4.0%
$13.13
+$8.27
+170.1%
$9.68
+$4.82
+99.2%
$3.45
26.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.43
-$0.43
-8.8%
$3.79
-$1.07
-22.0%
$0.64
14.5%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.19
-$0.67
-13.8%
$3.88
-$0.98
-20.2%
$0.31
7.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.32
-$1.54
-31.7%
$2.85
-$2.01
-41.4%
$0.47
14.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.65
-$2.21
-45.5%
$2.60
-$2.26
-46.5%
$0.05
1.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.90
-$2.96
-60.8%
$1.85
-$3.01
-61.9%
$0.05
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-27|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:54.846987Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1002571875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4305,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:27.089698Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3205,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:09.552708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.09234628919999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:26.116788Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a89bff508437",
"realistic_value": 25.725,
"optimistic_value": 25.27,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exoskeleton",
"conservative_value": 21.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:41.336902Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a89bff508437.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f6e2834cc427",
"realistic_value": 17.676000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 17.55,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Dezastre",
"conservative_value": 13.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:59.592655Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f6e2834cc427.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-be0f8a429ce6",
"realistic_value": 13.8605,
"optimistic_value": 12.38,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Clear Polymer",
"conservative_value": 10.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:42:09.189697Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-be0f8a429ce6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aeb0591ce152",
"realistic_value": 19.7905,
"optimistic_value": 18.8,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Parallax",
"conservative_value": 13.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:35:16.287580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aeb0591ce152.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.10445399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b154f1229365",
"realistic_value": 13.125,
"optimistic_value": 12.74,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth",
"conservative_value": 9.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Operation Broken Fang Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:29:33.227985Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b154f1229365.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1ac6829a279499e53be6582d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.15,
"skin_id": "skin-6739b9d43b7d",
"listing_id": "523123091077310338",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Vendetta (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6739b9d43b7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:06.673741Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-4c1d61428041",
"listing_id": "643593816529657765",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-27",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Deep Relief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Deep Relief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c1d61428041.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:10.540851Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:05:31.301656Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:25.545663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:28.744705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "498353924436499339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:25.948229Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872088106698692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:25.545663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "527627540538064388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:33.128372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:33.128372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:25.900259Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-27:2+collection-set-community-33:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 4.0% $70.99 Dezastre 4.0% $57.06 Parallax 4.0% $42.27 Clear Polymer 4.0% $29.81 Gold Bismuth 4.0% $24.64 Etch Lord 16.0% $13.06 | $70.99 +409.3% | $15.92 +14.2% | 20.0% | +108.5% | $13.94 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Exoskeleton 4.0% $17.41 Gold Bismuth 4.0% $13.13 Dezastre 4.0% $9.56 Parallax 4.0% $7.64 Clear Polymer 4.0% $6.98 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $17.41 +360.7% | $4.02 +6.5% | 36.0% | +93.9% | $3.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Exoskeleton 2.0% $25.73 Parallax 2.0% $19.79 Dezastre 2.0% $17.68 Clear Polymer 2.0% $13.86 Gold Bismuth 2.0% $13.13 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 | $25.73 +591.5% | $4.78 +28.5% | 46.0% | +119.2% | $3.72 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 8.0% $70.99 Dezastre 8.0% $57.06 Parallax 8.0% $42.27 Clear Polymer 8.0% $29.81 Gold Bismuth 8.0% $24.64 Etch Lord 12.0% $13.06 | $70.99 +272.3% | $23.18 +21.5% | 40.0% | +93.8% | $19.07 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 6.0% $70.99 Dezastre 6.0% $57.06 Parallax 6.0% $42.27 Clear Polymer 6.0% $29.81 Gold Bismuth 6.0% $25.07 Etch Lord 14.0% $13.06 | $70.99 +333.1% | $19.56 +19.3% | 30.0% | +103.6% | $16.39 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 10.0% $70.99 Dezastre 10.0% $57.06 Parallax 10.0% $42.27 Clear Polymer 10.0% $29.81 Gold Bismuth 10.0% $24.64 Etch Lord 10.0% $13.06 | $70.99 +209.6% | $26.80 +16.9% | 50.0% | +79.3% | $22.93 | — |
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Exoskeleton 14.0% $70.99 Dezastre 14.0% $57.06 Parallax 14.0% $42.27 Clear Polymer 14.0% $29.81 Gold Bismuth 14.0% $24.64 Etch Lord 6.0% $13.06 | $70.99 +112.7% | $34.06 +2.0% | 42.0% | +53.2% | $33.38 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Operation Broken Fang Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Fairy Tale  3.3% $56.73 Cyber Security  3.3% $56.35 Monster Mashup  3.3% $51.73 Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.53 | $56.73 +223.2% | $19.58 +11.5% | 40.0% | +75.0% | $17.55 | — |