The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
2x $0.15
Foresight
1x $0.30
Light Box
3x $0.21
Hideout
1x $0.29
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Irezumi
1x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
14.0% $4.43
Block-18
14.0% $4.19
Night Terror
6.0% $4.12
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $3.94
Just Smile
14.0% $3.32
Hybrid
14.0% $2.65
Max Win
$4.43 (+70.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.02 (+16.3%)
Win %
68.0%
Volatility
+44.6%
Cost
$2.60
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.60
Ask Price EV $3.02 (+16.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.70 (+4.0%)
Ask Profit $0.42 (+16.3%)
Bid Profit $0.10 (+4.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+12.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Risk
Win Probability 68.0%
Loss Probability 32.0%
Best Case $4.43 (+70.4%)
Worst Case $1.17 (-55.0%)
Volatility +44.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$1.12
Avg Loss -$1.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.17 (-55.0%)
Std Dev $1.16
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 155h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 54S //TOTAL COST $2.60 //ASK PRICE EV $3.02 //BID PRICE EV $2.70 //ASK PROFIT $0.42 (+16.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.10 (+4.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 68.0% //BEST CASE $4.43 //VOLATILITY +44.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.43
+$1.83
+70.4%
$3.79
+$1.19
+45.8%
$0.64
14.5%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.19
+$1.59
+61.2%
$3.88
+$1.28
+49.2%
$0.31
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
6.0%
$4.12
+$1.52
+58.6%
$3.46
+$0.86
+33.1%
$0.66
16.1%
—
BIG WIN
6.0%
$3.94
+$1.34
+51.5%
$3.26
+$0.66
+25.4%
$0.68
17.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.32
+$0.72
+27.7%
$2.85
+$0.25
+9.6%
$0.47
14.2%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$2.65
+$0.05
+1.9%
$2.60
+$0.00
+0.0%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.90
-$0.70
-26.8%
$1.85
-$0.75
-28.8%
$0.05
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$1.45
-$1.15
-44.1%
$1.22
-$1.38
-53.1%
$0.23
16.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.23
-$1.37
-52.7%
$1.19
-$1.41
-54.2%
$0.04
3.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.17
-$1.43
-55.0%
$1.00
-$1.60
-61.5%
$0.17
14.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:19.102917Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10070062500000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4305,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:47.953436Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3205,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:32.320445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0927547368,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.600665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.4535,
"optimistic_value": 1.45,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:12.543606Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.10491600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.10041960000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.2309999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:23.690849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1139088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07494,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.1709999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:12.053728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_14d0091685467468be601d8c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "528753440606266677",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.063152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "492724643508554985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.063152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "509612292238590183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:34.677877Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:25.545663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:44:41.778543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "498353924436499339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:40.970263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Night Terror 6.0% $4.12 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.87 Just Smile 14.0% $1.56 | $4.19 +126.5% | $2.16 +16.8% | 54.0% | +50.6% | $1.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Kilowatt Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 16.0% $10.13 Block-18 4.0% $8.90 Night Terror 16.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.45 Analog Input 4.0% $4.03 Just Smile 4.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +146.4% | $4.95 +20.6% | 40.0% | +63.2% | $4.11 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Night Terror 2.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $3.94 Just Smile 18.0% $3.35 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 | $4.46 +65.2% | $3.22 +19.2% | 58.0% | +27.1% | $2.70 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 14.0% $10.13 Block-18 6.0% $8.90 Night Terror 14.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Analog Input 6.0% $4.03 Just Smile 6.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +144.6% | $4.92 +18.9% | 40.0% | +61.4% | $4.14 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 12.0% $10.13 Block-18 8.0% $8.90 Night Terror 12.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.43 Analog Input 8.0% $4.13 Just Smile 8.0% $3.32 | $10.13 +145.2% | $4.90 +18.6% | 40.0% | +60.0% | $4.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +68.7% | $3.12 +18.2% | 72.0% | +28.8% | $2.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Analog Input 12.0% $4.03 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 | $8.90 +160.1% | $3.99 +16.6% | 52.0% | +50.4% | $3.42 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 10.0% $8.90 Night Terror 10.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Analog Input 10.0% $4.03 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +142.4% | $4.23 +15.3% | 50.0% | +53.5% | $3.67 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  23.3% $37.06 Jawbreaker  23.3% $14.90 Olympus  23.3% $13.83 Rapid Eye Movement  10.0% $9.11 Melondrama  10.0% $8.43 Abyssal Apparition  10.0% $8.11 | $37.06 +141.6% | $17.92 +16.8% | 23.3% | +70.8% | $15.34 | — |