The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragment
1x $0.48
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.43
Creep
2x $0.50
Aeolian Light
3x $0.74
Grip Tape
1x $0.77
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
45.0% $12.05
Trace Lock
45.0% $5.01
Electrum
2.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
2.0% $2.79
Galigator
2.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
2.0% $1.85
Max Win
$12.05 (+84.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.93 (+21.3%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+58.1%
Cost
$6.54
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.54
Ask Price EV $7.93 (+21.3%)
Bid Price EV $6.80 (+4.0%)
Ask Profit $1.39 (+21.3%)
Bid Profit $0.26 (+4.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.13 (+17.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.39
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $12.05 (+84.2%)
Worst Case $1.78 (-72.8%)
Volatility +58.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$5.51
Avg Loss -$1.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.19 (-66.6%)
Std Dev $3.80
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 155h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 46S //TOTAL COST $6.54 //ASK PRICE EV $7.93 //BID PRICE EV $6.80 //ASK PROFIT $1.39 (+21.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.26 (+4.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $12.05 //VOLATILITY +58.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
45.0%
$12.05
+$5.51
+84.2%
$10.32
+$3.78
+57.8%
$1.73
14.3%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$5.01
-$1.53
-23.4%
$4.30
-$2.24
-34.3%
$0.71
14.2%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$4.11
-$2.43
-37.1%
$3.61
-$2.93
-44.8%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.79
-$3.75
-57.4%
$2.32
-$4.22
-64.5%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.19
-$4.35
-66.6%
$1.74
-$4.80
-73.4%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.85
-$4.69
-71.7%
$1.65
-$4.89
-74.8%
$0.20
11.0%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.78
-$4.76
-72.8%
$1.65
-$4.89
-74.8%
$0.13
7.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.14979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.13980399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 5.01,
"optimistic_value": 5.01,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:18.928439Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7805,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:47.950712Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.8535000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.85,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:49.433796Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0925b1c34386bfc58dd56ab3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "523123940969688190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "510738989040034450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "494976224705666562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "516368541589358198",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:01.421513Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "499480042829119825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:36.177218Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "499480042829065105",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:31.404821Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "648097416149991260",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:36.177218Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "497228243056065977",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:25.086731Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:36.177218Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $13.99 Electrum 2.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 2.0% $5.02 Galigator 2.0% $3.30 Amberline 2.0% $3.17 | $27.06 +65.7% | $18.90 +15.7% | 45.0% | +46.4% | $16.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 45.0% $5.61 Electrum 2.0% $3.09 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.24 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.02 Galigator 2.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.46 | $5.61 +66.1% | $3.73 +10.5% | 45.0% | +49.7% | $3.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +124.0% | $6.73 +25.1% | 35.0% | +72.0% | $5.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.01 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +144.4% | $6.13 +24.4% | 60.0% | +78.1% | $4.93 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.61 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +115.1% | $3.24 +24.0% | 45.0% | +55.0% | $2.61 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Amberline 4.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +102.8% | $7.33 +23.4% | 40.0% | +64.3% | $5.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.61 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.24 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +123.6% | $3.10 +23.4% | 44.0% | +53.9% | $2.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +122.8% | $2.96 +17.4% | 43.0% | +49.9% | $2.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.05 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Trace Lock 5.0% $5.03 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.34 Amberline 18.0% $3.17 | $12.05 +191.7% | $4.75 +15.1% | 46.0% | +50.7% | $4.13 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $5.61 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.33 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.77 | $5.61 +125.4% | $2.81 +12.8% | 42.0% | +46.1% | $2.49 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  23.3% $35.39 The End  30.0% $27.17 Deathgaze  23.3% $9.36 Kintsugi  23.3% $9.12 | $35.39 +106.3% | $20.72 +20.8% | 53.3% | +65.0% | $17.15 | — |