The Revolution Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Liquidation
2x $0.12
Fragments
2x $0.13
Re.built
2x $0.14
Rebel
2x $0.14
Fraise Crane
2x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
10.0% $13.60
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $10.37
Sakkaku
16.0% $1.44
Neoqueen
16.0% $0.97
Emphorosaur-S
16.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
16.0% $0.74
Max Win
$13.60 (+471.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.14 (+31.8%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+188.7%
Cost
$2.38
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.38
Ask Price EV $3.14 (+31.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.89 (+21.2%)
Ask Profit $0.76 (+31.8%)
Bid Profit $0.51 (+21.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+10.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.76
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $13.60 (+471.6%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-69.3%)
Volatility +188.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$9.61
Avg Loss -$1.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.73 (-69.3%)
Std Dev $4.49
Avg Norm Float 0.2129
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 132h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 43S //TOTAL COST $2.38 //ASK PRICE EV $3.14 //BID PRICE EV $2.89 //ASK PROFIT $0.76 (+31.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.51 (+21.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $13.60 //VOLATILITY +188.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$13.60
+$11.22
+471.6%
$12.13
+$9.75
+409.7%
$1.47
10.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.37
+$7.99
+335.8%
$9.75
+$7.37
+309.7%
$0.62
6.0%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.44
-$0.94
-39.5%
$1.41
-$0.97
-40.8%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.97
-$1.41
-59.3%
$0.93
-$1.45
-60.9%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.75
-$1.63
-68.6%
$0.70
-$1.68
-70.6%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.74
-$1.64
-68.9%
$0.69
-$1.69
-71.0%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.73
-$1.65
-69.3%
$0.63
-$1.75
-73.5%
$0.10
13.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1596675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.17031200000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.3334762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:03.952204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.127734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.9675,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:26.357100Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21289,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:46.840587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.149023,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.6035,
"optimistic_value": 13.39,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:35.181973Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.149023,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 10.3715,
"optimistic_value": 10.06,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:23.183250Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05a0f4fd5cee55e5a0d7803b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "525375740886637519",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.628392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007426564",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:57:18.608701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "636838417176201184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:57:18.608701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "518620122759318232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:15.879534Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496101493273506035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:16:33.057130Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "512990623223302931",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.628392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "491598743581196810",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:36.907488Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "491598690698787182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:05:07.017383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "509613142169036667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:48.036208Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "515242641502554145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:48.036208Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $14.13 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.09 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.44 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 | $14.13 +188.9% | $6.52 +33.4% | 50.0% | +111.7% | $4.89 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.37 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.44 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 | $13.60 +124.1% | $7.57 +24.7% | 60.0% | +85.8% | $6.07 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $14.13 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.09 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.43 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 | $14.13 +92.7% | $8.76 +19.5% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.33 | — |